As we begin 2024, warmer-than-normal temperatures are giving way to a potential arctic blast for much of the U.S. The National Weather Service has forecasted a possible polar vortex for the central U.S. extending down to Texas starting this weekend into next week.  This has the potential to significantly impact the natural gas market and demand.

‍Domestic Demand

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic natural gas demand from December 14-20 was down four percent compared to the same period in 2022 due to warmer temperatures.  A large part of this decrease was seen in the residential and commercial sector with a 20 percent decrease in demand at 35.9 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day.  

A large part of the U.S. is expected to experience powerful winter storms over the next two weeks.  From blizzard conditions in the Plains to heavy rain and tornado risks in the south, millions of people will be impacted by a series of storm systems.  Starting this weekend and into next week, frigid air is slated to move south bringing extreme cold with some computer models predicting temperatures to be 50°F below average.  If extreme temperatures hit, expect to see a significant jump in natural gas demand as millions of people will be impacted.

‍International Demand  

‍As the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) increases, the United States continues to ramp up its LNG exports to meet that demand. In December, the U.S. set new monthly and yearly export records, making it the leading LNG exporter globally, surpassing Qatar and Australia. The total exports for 2023 grew by 14.7 percent, reaching 88.9 million metric tons, up from 2022.  The growth in LNG exports continue to grow at a rapid pace as more producers are chasing higher prices for exports.

Europe entered 2024 with a high level of natural gas in storage, mostly due to warmer than normal temperatures throughout 2023.  This week, the arctic blast that hit the Nordic region, moved south to cover most of Europe with low temperatures causing power prices to jump seven percent in Germany.

‍Production & Supply    

The U.S. continues to have a high level of natural gas in storage at 3,476 Bcf.  This is 19 percent above last year at this time and 13 percent above the five-year average.  The continued high level of storage has helped keep prices low.  This has prompted producers to lower rig count by 22.7 percent compared to last year as they try to decrease investment in hopes of bringing prices more in line with expectations.

If you have any questions about the information in this newsletter or would like to talk to someone about your natural gas, please call your sales representative.