As spring approaches and temperatures begin to climb, the need for heating decreases, resulting in lower demand for natural gas. This trend is common during the transition to warmer weather, particularly in homes and businesses, leading to reduced overall consumption of natural gas.

Domestic Demand

Total U.S. natural gas usage decreased by 4.1 percent (3.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)) compared to the week of February 26th. This decline was primarily driven by a 9.4 percent reduction in gas consumption by residential and commercial sectors, thanks to warmer temperatures. The drop in demand due to the mild weather has led to a continuous decrease in natural gas prices at the beginning of March and the end of February. This warmer weather is attributed to a strong El Niño pattern, resulting in less need for gas heating in homes. Weather forecasts indicate warm conditions will persist for the rest of March.

International Demand  

The Freeport LNG export facility faces a two-week delay in completing repairs to a third train at its export terminal in Texas. Earlier this year, during the recent winter storms, the train's electrical motor was damaged. This setback follows an eight-month outage caused by a fire. Before the outage, gas flows were reaching about 2 Bcf/d. If the delay stretches into mid-March, it could result in approximately 40 Bcf of lost gas demand.

The Biden administration's decision to temporarily halt LNG export licenses might have provided an opportunity for Canadian projects to advance following years of trailing behind; Canadian authorities have been highlighting their superior emission credentials this month. This effort aims to promote Canadian LNG export ventures that have long faced challenges due to the complexities of constructing in remote, challenging terrains and the competitive economics of the abundant U.S. gas supply.

Production & Supply  

On March 7th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, which showed that the amount of gas in storage decreased by 40 Bcf compared to the previous week. Even with this decrease in natural gas storage, there's 13.6 percent more gas in storage compared to last year and 30.9 percent above the five-year average.

In the last year, producers have been reducing production to help bring prices in line with demand. As a result, the U.S. saw a 22.7 percent drop in natural gas rig numbers compared to last year. However, even with this significant drop in natural gas production prices remain below both demand levels and producers' preferences.

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